Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases 

Spring 2023 (1.5 unit)

This course is an introduction to concepts of mathematical modeling of infectious diseases; topics include branching processes and the basic reproduction number, dynamical systems, and methods for data fitting Including Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).


The objectives for this course are for participants to:

  • Understand key concepts of epidemic modeling (herd immunity, basic reproduction number, stochastic vs deterministic modeling);
  • Read and assess mathematical models based on their biomedical assumptions;
  • Understand selected methods for fitting mathematical models to data; and
  • Understand how to assess forecasts from mathematical models.


Probability theory or statistics. Exceptions to this prerequisite may be made with the consent of the Course Director, space permitting.


Course Director:

Travis Porco, PhD,MPH

Professor, Proctor Foundation
email: [email protected]


Course content will be delivered through weekly interactive lectures. These will take place on Fridays from 10:30 AM to 12:00 PM, Apr. 7 to Jun 9.

The daily schedule of activities will be posted on the course's online syllabus.



Biomedical Informatics: Computer Applications in Health Care and Biomedicine (Health Informatics) by E.H. Shortliffe, J.J. Cimino. Springer-Verlag. 2006.

Books may be purchased either through the publisher or a variety of commercial venues (e.g.,


Grades will be based 10% on class attendance, 75% on weekly assignments, and the remainder on a take-home final examination.

Students not in full-year TICR Programs who satisfactorily pass all course requirements will, upon request, receive a Certificate of Course Completion.

UCSF Graduate Division Policy on Disabilities

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ATCR and MAS students use the Student Portal

Students taking individual courses:

Course Fees
How to pay (please read before applying)
Only one application needs to be completed for all courses desired during the quarter.

Spring Course Schedule (available January 15, 2023)

Apply (application for Spring application will be available January 15, 2023)